Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
